Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf908…9b5a other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%31W / 22L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$9
sports 18% +$18
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 47% -3.9%
≤30d 53 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 47% -3.9%
≤90d 53 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 47% -3.9%
all 53 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 47% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 47% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 28% -13.1%
15% -32.0% 19% -21.5%
20% -38.7% 4% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses31 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions8
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage6d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 30¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 25 $20 $0 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 +$8 +12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$10 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $138 +$71 +51%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -32%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 +$2 +4%
Morocco to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $18 +$8 +47%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$5 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $33 +$13 +40%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$19 +42%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 +$14 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $116 −$73 -63%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $131 +$12 +9%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$21 +14%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $132 +$5 +4%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 23 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$21 +26%
Argentina to score first vs. Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Belgium to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $33 −$11 -32%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $65 +$13 +19%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $62 +$1 +1%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $14 −$10 -72%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 14h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 24h
Senegal to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 33h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? SELL Yes 48¢ $9 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 33h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 57¢ $10 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 35h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 35h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 36h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 36h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 36h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.47 · official $160.47 (match) · 194 history records