Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf908…0aaf sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,397 (+29%) realized +$1,461 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%48W / 24L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$765
14 days+$1,037
30 days+$1,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,272
other 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +40.0% +26.7% 72% 72% +29.0%
≤30d 72 +28.4% +16.2% 67% 67% +18.4%
≤90d 72 +28.4% +16.2% 67% 67% +18.4%
all 72 +28.4% +16.2% 67% 67% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.2% 67% +18.4%
10% +5.1% 67% +7.1%
15% -5.1% 67% -3.3%
20% -14.4% 65% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$56 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$1,461
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses48 / 24
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions8
Markets (closed)72 / 80
History coverage30d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 63¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers No 55¢ 54¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 45¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $71 +$54 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $61 +$36 +60%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$57 +93%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $61 +$50 +83%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $91 +$67 +73%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $61 +$35 +58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 +$89 +146%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$48 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $61 +$50 +83%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$60 +197%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $61 +$89 +146%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $61 +$64 +105%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl Jun 12 $61 +$55 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $61 +$57 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $61 +$57 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 11 $61 +$66 +108%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $61 +$48 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $122 +$105 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $61 +$38 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $61 +$50 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $61 +$55 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $61 +$75 +124%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $61 +$85 +140%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $61 +$44 +73%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $61 +$67 +109%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $61 +$69 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 06 $61 +$66 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $61 −$60 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $61 +$69 +114%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $61 +$57 +93%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $31 +$39 +129%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston Jun 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 55¢ $61 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $71 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 56¢ $71 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $61 23h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 51¢ $61 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $61 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $61 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 25h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 54¢ $61 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $61 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $91 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 45¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $61 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 55¢ $61 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $61 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $61 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $61 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $31 3d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics Academy 36¢ $46 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $46 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 51¢ $61 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Cl BUY No 52¢ $61 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $61 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 51¢ $61 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $61 5d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 48¢ $61 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $61 5d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 54¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.05 · official $411.05 (match) · 132 history records