Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf908…ee9a sports 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-16%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1
other 31% −$6
crypto 19% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.8% -27.4% 57% 43% -21.3%
≤30d 19 -17.8% -25.7% 47% 37% -26.5%
≤90d 19 -17.8% -25.7% 47% 37% -26.5%
all 19 -17.8% -25.7% 47% 37% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 37% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 16% -33.5%
15% -39.3% 11% -39.9%
20% -45.2% 5% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -75%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $3 −$2 -63%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 21¢ $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 40¢ $2 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 93¢ $2 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 77¢ $2 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream SELL New York Liberty 72¢ $1 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 65¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt SELL Nicolas Kicker 92¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt BUY Nicolas Kicker 73¢ $1 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 76¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $2 5d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini SELL Federico Coria 65¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini BUY Federico Coria 56¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 18¢ $1 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 25¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 5d
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 67¢ $2 5d
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez SELL Eduardo Ribeiro 75¢ $1 5d
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 65¢ $1 5d
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 47¢ $1 6d
ITF Wuning: Yidi Yang vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 40¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 61¢ $11 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 39¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records