Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf907…ace6 sports 68 markets active 6h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-34%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$70
14 days−$65
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$61
other 36% −$12
weather 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 42% -54.6%
≤30d 68 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 40% -41.8%
≤90d 68 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 40% -41.8%
all 68 -2.1% -11.4% 43% 40% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -41.8%
10% -19.9% 37% -47.3%
15% -27.6% 32% -52.4%
20% -34.7% 26% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 39
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +227%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $2 +$1 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2 −$1 -35%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +246%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -28%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1 +$2 +197%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $1 +$3 +307%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $0 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 51¢ $1 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $1 17h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes $1 29h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 33h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 34h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 36h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 42h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 42h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $60 46h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 44¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records