Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf906…68c6 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 243L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$44
sports 24% −$22
politics 10% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
culture 5% −$5
economics 4% −$3
world 3% −$1
tech 1% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage133d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $342 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $237 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $342 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $175 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $410 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $311 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $487 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $764 +$1 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $494 −$3 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $143 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $135 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 4m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $59 3h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 5h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 6h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $11 8h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 9h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 11h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 12h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 14h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 16h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 18h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 24h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 25h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 26h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 28h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $61 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 37h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 39h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 40h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 41h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 43h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 45h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 46h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 47h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1349 history records