Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F9
0xf904…5875
crypto · 23 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 55% -5.2%
≤30d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 55% -5.2%
≤90d 22 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 55% -5.2%
all 22 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 55% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 55% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 41% -14.3%
15% -25.4% 27% -22.6%
20% -32.7% 18% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.46 (match) · 98 history records