Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf903…29ae other 100 markets active 12h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-37%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$21
crypto 21% −$25
sports 4% $0
economics 3% −$4
world 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -29.9% -36.6% 14% 3% -49.2%
≤30d 90 -29.9% -36.6% 14% 3% -49.2%
≤90d 90 -29.9% -36.6% 14% 3% -49.2%
all 90 -29.9% -36.6% 14% 3% -49.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 3% -49.2%
10% ← realistic here -42.6% 2% -54.0%
15% -48.2% 2% -58.5%
20% -53.3% 2% -62.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 77
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 100
History coverage5d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1 $0 -41%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -30%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -26%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 $0 -18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $1 $0 -13%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $1 $0 -7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 2¢ $1 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY 1¢ $1 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 1¢ $1 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 1¢ $1 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 21h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.50 · official $2.50 (match) · 169 history records