Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
F9 0xf903…e028 other 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$4,799 (+40%) realized +$4,690 · open +$109
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate74%125W / 44L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$105
14 days+$1,035
30 days+$1,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$3,558
world 12% +$625
tech 11% +$295
politics 10% +$154
sports 1% −$3
crypto 0% +$30
economics 0% +$12
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.4% -24.3% 50% 25% -0.8%
≤30d 19 +13.2% +2.5% 74% 63% +14.5%
≤90d 58 +57.9% +42.8% 76% 71% +30.7%
all 169 +75.1% +58.4% 74% 67% +31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.4% 67% +31.0%
10% +43.3% 63% +18.5%
15% +29.4% 53% +7.1%
20% +16.7% 42% -3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +101% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$7 · ×5.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.53 per $1 lost it wins $15.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$1,955
Realized+$4,690
Unrealized+$109
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses125 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)169 / 182
History coverage250d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? No 82¢ 81¢ $570 $565 −$5 (-1%)
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $428 $511 +$84 (+20%)
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? No 56¢ 62¢ $269 $303 +$34 (+13%)
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? No 82¢ 82¢ $235 $236 +$1 (+1%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 61¢ 66¢ $133 $143 +$10 (+7%)
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+3%)
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his next YouTube video? No 78¢ 78¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Yes 78¢ 87¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next YouTube video? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+13%)
Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30? Yes 33¢ 11¢ $43 $14 −$29 (-67%)
Will Jack Grealish join Napoli? Yes $0 $4 +$4 (+1373%)
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will Jack Grealish join Aston Villa? Yes $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 24 $332 +$2 +1%
Will Marcus Rashford join Aston Villa? Jun 22 $327 +$127 +39%
Will MrBeast say "Dream" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Jun 19 $432 −$22 -5%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 17 $680 +$230 +34%
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? Jun 17 $880 +$283 +32%
Will "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $1,096 +$369 +34%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 13 $141 +$24 +17%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 12 $39 −$15 -37%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $92 +$30 +33%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? Jun 03 $278 +$12 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $51 +$55 +108%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 01 $80 +$57 +71%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? May 31 $35 +$5 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $101 +$46 +46%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $1,279 +$504 +39%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next YouTube video? May 29 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? May 25 $35 +$17 +48%
Will "Hantavirus" be said during the next episode of the Joe Rogan Exp May 19 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $308 +$182 +59%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 16 $70 +$54 +77%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $328 +$218 +67%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $98 +$55 +56%
Will Pia Olsen Dyhr be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 20 May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Martin Lidegaard be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 16 $0 $0 -96%
Will MrBeast say "MrBeast" during his next YouTube video? May 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 11 $264 +$103 +39%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 10 $51 +$15 +29%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? May 03 $25 −$4 -17%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? May 02 $564 +$470 +83%
Will MrBeast say "Eliminate" or "Eliminated" during his next video? May 02 $24 +$34 +146%
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next video? May 02 $35 +$27 +76%
Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next video? May 02 $6 +$29 +510%
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next video? May 02 $225 +$226 +100%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 02 $36 +$36 +102%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30? May 01 $20 −$19 -95%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 01 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Apr 29 $96 +$33 +34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 22 $100 +$66 +66%
Will MrBeast say "Thank You" during his next video? Apr 19 $54 +$127 +233%
Will MrBeast say "Feastable" during his next video? Apr 19 $165 +$181 +110%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? Apr 19 $227 +$320 +141%
Will MrBeast say "Influencer" during his next video? Apr 16 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? Apr 15 $0 $0 +114%
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? Apr 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Apr 12 $17 +$6 +36%
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Apr 11 $18 +$7 +37%
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? Apr 11 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY No 78¢ $44 1h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 75¢ $31 9h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 9h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 9h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 84¢ $247 10h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 10h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 10h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 10h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 11h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 56¢ $334 13h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $135 13h
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 54¢ $332 17h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 87¢ $20 17h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 87¢ $38 17h
Haiti elections delayed again? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 20h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 86¢ $37 26h
Will Jack Grealish join Napoli? BUY Yes $0 26h
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham? BUY Yes $0 26h
Will Jack Grealish join Aston Villa? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Jack Grealish join Tottenham? BUY Yes $0 26h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 80¢ $7 30h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 81¢ $22 30h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 80¢ $102 30h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 82¢ $46 30h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 76¢ $20 30h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 85¢ $93 33h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 83¢ $32 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,955.07 · official $1,955.14 (match) · 1065 history records