Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F9 0xf903…de2f sports 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-13%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$199
7 days−$289
14 days−$315
30 days−$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$315
other 9% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +31.0% +18.5% 53% 35% -27.5%
≤30d 69 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 69 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 39% -22.5%
all 69 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 39% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 39% -22.5%
10% -8.1% 29% -30.0%
15% -17.0% 20% -36.7%
20% -25.2% 14% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$19 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage15d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$13 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -79%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $20 +$13 +66%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 −$22 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $37 +$4 +10%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 20 $165 −$161 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 $0 -4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $158 +$8 +5%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 19 $140 +$16 +11%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $36 +$4 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $25 −$5 -21%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $51 +$29 +56%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $81 +$3 +3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $15 +$4 +24%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $17 −$9 -52%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $15 +$2 +12%
Hapoel Tel-Aviv vs. Maccabi Tel-Aviv Jun 18 $92 +$22 +24%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $86 +$13 +16%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano Jun 16 $37 −$33 -90%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $51 −$44 -86%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 15 $61 −$30 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $31 −$1 -3%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $27 +$4 +15%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $22 +$16 +73%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $1 +$2 +150%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$2 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $39 +$8 +21%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $85 −$19 -22%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $10 −$2 -21%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 12 $56 +$15 +27%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $34 +$12 +34%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $28 +$7 +25%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $36 +$13 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $64 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 34¢ $21 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 16¢ $10 7h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova SELL Jessica Pegula 58¢ $13 8h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 44¢ $10 8h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $20 21h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings $1 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $18 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 28h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 47¢ $33 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 47¢ $2 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 47¢ $2 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 47¢ $2 30h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 42¢ $37 30h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 16¢ $15 31h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 25¢ $10 32h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 31¢ $10 32h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Otto Virtanen 24¢ $41 32h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 12¢ $10 32h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 34¢ $31 32h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 42¢ $31 33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records