Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F9 0xf900…c37e finance 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+7%) realized +$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 53% +$29
other 42% +$15
politics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 100% +5.8%
≤30d 1 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 100% +5.8%
≤90d 3 +8.6% -1.8% 100% 33% -1.6%
all 4 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 50% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 50% -0.7%
10% -10.4% 0% -10.2%
15% -19.1% 0% -18.9%
20% -27.0% 0% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage193d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 18 $116 +$20 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 05 $111 +$6 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 02 $107 +$4 +4%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 08 $125 +$15 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $136 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $135 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $116 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY No 95¢ $111 62d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $107 93d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 78¢ $34 182d
Maduro out in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $34 182d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $125 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.88 · official $170.88 (match) · 192 history records