Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:06:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8fe…49fc crypto 1705 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate85%1474W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day70.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$145
14 days−$244
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 255 -7.8% -16.6% 81% 12% -20.2%
≤30d 1712 -1.1% -10.6% 85% 12% -10.7%
≤90d 1727 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 12% -10.8%
all 1727 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 12% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 5% -19.3%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.1%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1474 / 253
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1727 / 1705
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day70.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1727 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 25? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 24? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 24? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -391%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 24? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$20 -278%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 25? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 25? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 22? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records