Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8fd…d641 crypto 1859 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$683 (-6%) realized −$97 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%322W / 1386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days+$440
14 days+$440
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$315
sports 0% −$39
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 +58.9% +43.8% 30% 30% +20.6%
≤30d 197 +58.9% +43.8% 30% 30% +20.6%
≤90d 1662 +1.9% -7.8% 19% 19% -8.5%
all 1708 +0.1% -9.4% 19% 19% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 19% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 19% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 19% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$6 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$97
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses322 / 1386
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1708 / 1859
History coverage99d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams George Washington Revolutionaries 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles Florida State Seminoles 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Florida State Seminoles Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Liberty Flames vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Denver Pioneers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Pacific Tigers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
George Mason Patriots vs. George Washington Revolutionaries Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Delaware State Hornets Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Long Beach State Beach vs. UC Davis Aggies Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UC Davis Aggies vs. California-San Diego Tritons Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Kansas City Roos Jun 15 $3 −$4 -132%
Rockets vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tennessee State Tigers vs. Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Old Dominion Monarchs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Denver Pioneers vs. Omaha Mavericks Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. Omaha Mavericks Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Michigan Wolverines vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Towson Tigers vs. Stony Brook Seawolves Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Fairfield Stags Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. UNCW Seahawks Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Marist Red Foxes vs. Manhattan Jaspers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Jackson State Tigers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils Jun 15 $3 −$4 -137%
Davidson Wildcats vs. Dayton Flyers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bellarmine Knights vs. Central Arkansas Bears Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UNCW Seahawks vs. Campbell Fighting Camels Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Raptors Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. New Orleans Privateers Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Towson Tigers Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$28 +520%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$19 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$48 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$21 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$25 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$23 +529%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$22 +387%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records