Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8fb…19dc other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,662 (-51%) realized −$4,000 · open −$662
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 58L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$480per market
Trades / day23.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,455
7 days−$5,092
14 days−$5,092
30 days−$5,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$4,102
finance 24% −$638
world 18% +$2,772
economics 17% −$3,445
tech 7% −$133
politics 1% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-60.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -70.2% -73.0% 2% 2% -55.0%
≤30d 53 -70.2% -73.0% 2% 2% -55.0%
≤90d 59 -54.2% -58.6% 7% 7% -16.8%
all 62 -56.4% -60.6% 6% 6% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.6% 6% -35.1%
10% ← realistic here -64.3% 6% -41.3%
15% -67.8% 6% -47.0%
20% -70.9% 6% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
183.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,971 vs −$218 · ×9.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$1,495
Realized−$4,000
Unrealized−$662
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 19
History coverage148d ⚠
Avg bet$480
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $1,974 $1,334 −$641 (-32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $141 $144 +$3 (+2%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $13 $3 −$10 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 8 Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $628 −$628 -100%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Norway vs. Estonia end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $385 −$385 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $323 −$323 -100%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116K on August 2 at 5PM ET? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will LeBron James be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Jerome Powell be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $842 −$842 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Estonia win on 2025-11-13? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $703 −$703 -100%
Will Trump nominate Philip Jefferson as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pope Francis be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in August? Jun 17 $466 −$466 -100%
Will Time announce Person of the Year on December 11? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 25 ET? Jun 17 $468 −$468 -100%
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Jun 17 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Ron Paul as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19? Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
US strikes Iran by October 3? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $643 −$119 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $78 −$31 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $597 −$312 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $63 39m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 6¢ $66 4h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 6¢ $458 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 6h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $14 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,034 13h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 7¢ $125 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $47 35h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $78 35h
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $29 37h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 7¢ $519 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $100 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $78 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $4,078 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $48 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $94 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $76 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,494.71 · official $1,494.71 (match) · 3500 history records