Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8f8…5a82 crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,516 (-20%) realized −$1,511 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%177W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$10
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$694
sports 36% −$828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -5.7% -14.7% 53% 51% -11.9%
≤30d 51 -8.2% -17.0% 53% 51% -23.9%
≤90d 183 -19.3% -27.0% 50% 43% -37.6%
all 335 -13.1% -21.4% 53% 46% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 46% -27.4%
10% -28.9% 41% -34.4%
15% -35.8% 30% -40.7%
20% -42.1% 24% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1,511
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses177 / 158
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)335 / 338
History coverage130d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 30 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Jun 30 $64 +$42 +65%
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan Jun 30 $24 +$19 +81%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$11 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$3 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $17 −$9 -54%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $14 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs Wingman (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Jun 26 $36 −$15 -42%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 1 Winne Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $26 −$26 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$10 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 26m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $28 28m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 58m
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri SELL MIBR Academy 100¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri SELL MIBR Academy 91¢ $1 1h
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan SELL Yosuke Watanuki 100¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri SELL MIBR Academy 86¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 45¢ $24 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY 17¢ $10 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 29¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri SELL MIBR Academy 69¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 55¢ $20 1h
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Yosuke Watanuki 54¢ $24 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 57¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY MIBR Academy 5¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Acend 38¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series SELL Vexa 22¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 21¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 16¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner BUY Bounty Hunters Esports 27¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 27¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.18 · official $34.72 · 936 history records