Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8f7…93a4 weather 452 markets active 1d ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%320W / 123L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$52
14 days−$36
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$39
other 14% +$70
tech 13% +$26
crypto 10% −$47
finance 10% +$10
politics 7% −$24
sports 6% +$6
world 5% +$8
economics 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -41.9% -47.5% 32% 21% -24.7%
≤30d 97 -14.8% -23.0% 65% 23% -15.0%
≤90d 146 -4.3% -13.4% 74% 31% -10.5%
all 443 -6.4% -15.3% 72% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 40% -9.3%
10% -23.4% 19% -18.0%
15% -30.8% 12% -25.9%
20% -37.6% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses320 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)443 / 452
History coverage614d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 86¢ 82¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $32 $21 −$12 (-36%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 82¢ 85¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election? Yes 89¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 90¢ 26¢ $13 $4 −$10 (-71%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$10 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$7 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $39 +$29 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $23 +$38 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$23 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $8 −$6 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $22 −$13 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$22 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Core CPI YoY be 3.3% or more in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $36 +$25 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$21 -95%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 09 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $21 +$19 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 06 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $18 +$17 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $41 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$14 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $6 +$9 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 3? Jun 04 $39 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $34 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 21¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $19 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.73 · official $131.73 (match) · 1273 history records