Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8f5…3766 finance 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22,581 (+12%) realized +$22,298 · open +$283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$10,796per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,458
7 days+$17,864
14 days+$17,877
30 days+$16,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 99% +$22,074
tech 1% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +124.3% +102.9% 100% 100% +82.3%
≤30d 12 +13.8% +3.0% 67% 42% +3.9%
≤90d 14 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 43% +1.1%
all 14 +13.0% +2.3% 71% 43% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 43% +1.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 21% -8.5%
15% -16.5% 21% -17.4%
20% -24.7% 21% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,845 vs −$1,742 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.08 per $1 lost it wins $4.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$10,642
Realized+$22,298
Unrealized+$283
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage39d
Avg bet$10,796
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $9,739 $10,476 +$737 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $499 $155 −$344 (-69%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $83 $7 −$76 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $38 $3 −$35 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 27 $3,141 +$6,458 +206%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 24 $6,051 +$6,836 +113%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $8,416 +$4,570 +54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $87 +$13 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $2,409 −$309 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $9,115 +$897 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $5,279 −$5,272 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 30 $2,961 −$1,288 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $11,615 +$1,682 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $24,627 +$1,236 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $38,022 +$1,813 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 27 $52,868 +$3,028 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $17,762 +$1,917 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 14m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 17m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 18m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 24m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $23 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $4 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,641.93 · official $10,641.93 (match) · 524 history records