Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8f2…96cf
other · 251 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$410 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$237 · open −$116
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$237
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses97 / 118
Open positions36
Markets (closed)215 / 251
History coverage180d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 36 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 30¢ 6¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-74%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-90%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-93%)
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Will Titan launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 51¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+72%)
Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$6 (-88%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-93%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 67¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+92%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 13¢ 46¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+251%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-96%)
Will Titan launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 2¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $100-$115 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-94%)
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-90%)
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$10 -22%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 13 $109 −$17 -16%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 13 $47 −$16 -34%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 13 $87 −$14 -16%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $23 −$6 -28%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -38%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 13 $11 −$8 -70%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewe Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e Jun 13 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exa Jun 13 $29 −$1 -5%
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after t Jun 13 $9 −$3 -38%
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +330%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? Jun 13 $62 +$10 +16%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Jun 13 $4 +$8 +191%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$19 -36%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 13 $28 +$4 +13%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division? Jun 13 $114 −$13 -12%
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Apr 17 $11 −$6 -53%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? Apr 13 $26 +$6 +22%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Apr 09 $77 $0 -0%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Apr 09 $69 +$11 +16%
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 08 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Pacific Division? Apr 08 $83 +$10 +12%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $22 −$10 -48%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after th Apr 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Fomo launch a token by September 30 2026? Apr 04 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Mar 30 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? Mar 30 $14 −$11 -79%
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition Mar 26 $27 −$9 -33%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Mar 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31? Mar 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85%? Mar 21 $11 −$3 -30%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Mar 19 $6 $0 +9%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Mar 19 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the Pacific Division? Mar 19 $14 −$5 -38%
Will the Dallas Stars win the Central Division? Mar 19 $18 −$7 -39%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Mar 18 $18 +$6 +35%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Mar 18 $22 −$9 -39%
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31? Mar 17 $87 −$13 -16%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academ Mar 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$168
world 11% −$54
politics 10% −$23
tech 10% +$14
crypto 8% −$90
economics 4% −$1
finance 3% +$4
sports 2% −$14
culture 1% −$13
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $2 1h
Another Elon baby by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $3 1h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 1h
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 1h
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 SELL Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 1h
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be fewe SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary e SELL Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 1h
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exa SELL Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after t SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 76¢ $9 1h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 1h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 1h
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 51d
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kans SELL Yes 13¢ $2 56d
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kans SELL Yes 13¢ $1 56d
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 6¢ $2 57d
Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 6¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 26% -19.7%
≤30d 27 +4.7% -5.3% 33% 26% -19.7%
≤90d 49 -1.8% -11.1% 39% 29% -17.6%
all 215 -7.0% -15.9% 45% 30% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 30% -12.6%
10% -23.9% 17% -20.9%
15% -31.3% 12% -28.6%
20% -38.0% 9% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.29 · official $17.74 · 1493 history records