Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8f0…1985 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-8%) realized −$15 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$26
sports 16% +$38
crypto 14% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 38% -20.2%
≤30d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 38% -20.2%
≤90d 8 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 38% -20.2%
all 8 -21.9% -29.3% 38% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 38% -20.2%
10% -36.1% 38% -27.8%
15% -42.3% 38% -34.8%
20% -47.9% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.32 · official $89.32 (match) · 19 history records