Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf8eb…8473 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,429 (+14%) realized +$2,961 · open +$1,468
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 73L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day33.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5,772now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$24
14 days−$219
30 days−$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$673
world 29% +$1,858
culture 13% +$3,111
politics 12% −$378
finance 7% −$885
crypto 0% +$80
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.5% -32.6% 60% 20% -7.7%
≤30d 81 +21.2% +9.7% 38% 26% -17.0%
≤90d 136 +40.1% +26.8% 46% 29% -3.6%
all 136 +40.1% +26.8% 46% 29% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.8% 29% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +14.6% 23% -12.9%
15% +3.6% 18% -21.3%
20% -6.6% 13% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +44% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$98 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5,772
Realized+$2,961
Unrealized+$1,468
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)136 / 165
History coverage57d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day33.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 6¢ 20¢ $815 $2,785 +$1,971 (+242%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $724 $885 +$161 (+22%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $408 $327 −$81 (-20%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $303 $318 +$15 (+5%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $270 $260 −$10 (-4%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $161 $180 +$19 (+11%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $268 $134 −$135 (-50%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m? Yes 28¢ 40¢ $88 $129 +$41 (+47%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 38¢ 40¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+7%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $156 $118 −$38 (-24%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $144 $91 −$53 (-37%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 70¢ 88¢ $70 $88 +$18 (+26%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $77 $82 +$6 (+7%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? No 65¢ 89¢ $43 $59 +$16 (+37%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+10%)
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $90 $21 −$69 (-77%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $15 $19 +$5 (+32%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $9 $19 +$10 (+114%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 57¢ 3¢ $348 $19 −$329 (-95%)
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $35 $18 −$17 (-47%)
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 25¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-36%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 70¢ 95¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+36%)
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 17 $298 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 17 $166 +$8 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $128 −$120 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 13 $25 −$23 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $426 +$195 +46%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $37 −$12 -33%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$2 +13%
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 10 $43 −$38 -90%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 09 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $142 −$1 -1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $42 −$10 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +19%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 07 $33 −$3 -8%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 07 $9 $0 -2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 07 $215 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +92%
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026? Jun 05 $41 −$8 -19%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +171%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $425 +$67 +16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $614 −$370 -60%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $253 −$86 -34%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 03 $1,070 −$1,014 -95%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -24%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in Jun 02 $33 +$63 +190%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater tha Jun 01 $32 −$32 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $79 +$83 +105%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 01 $39 −$23 -59%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 31 $392 +$383 +98%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 30 $10 +$9 +93%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $27 +$436 +1596%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 27 $474 −$238 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $597 −$277 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $310 +$332 +107%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 27 $146 −$72 -49%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o May 27 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic openi May 27 $7 −$6 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 13¢ $1 32m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $100 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 67¢ $67 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $56 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $10 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $9 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $8 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 40¢ $40 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $23 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $43 11h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $46 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $9 12h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 37¢ $14 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $17 12h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 26¢ $13 13h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $156 13h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 15h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 57¢ $57 15h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $12 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $72 19h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 40¢ $60 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 20h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $79 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $20 23h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $3 23h
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,772.50 · official $5,763.58 (match) · 2030 history records