Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8ea…b603
crypto · 308 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,696 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,716 · open +$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70
Realized−$1,716
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses120 / 187
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage243d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$30
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Up 38¢ 54¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $38 +$19 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$33 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $55 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$37 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$40 +78%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $35 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $99 −$93 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$41 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 07 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $41 −$36 -87%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 01 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 01 $31 −$24 -77%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 01 $40 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 27 $25 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $10 −$2 -25%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 27 $4 −$1 -29%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 26 $60 −$37 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 26 $112 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 26 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 26 $50 −$18 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 26 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 26 $50 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $30 −$14 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $140 −$58 -41%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 26 $30 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Apr 26 $30 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $24 −$16 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 25 $38 +$36 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 25 $50 +$42 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 25 $33 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 25 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$846
world 16% −$208
finance 13% −$126
other 8% −$316
politics 7% −$143
sports 5% −$53
weather 1% −$6
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $38 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $38 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $53 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $30 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 53% -11.3%
≤30d 19 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 58% -12.7%
≤90d 301 -12.4% -20.7% 38% 28% -16.5%
all 307 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 29% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 29% -16.0%
10% -27.3% 18% -24.0%
15% -34.3% 11% -31.4%
20% -40.8% 7% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.82 · official $69.82 (match) · 1267 history records