Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8e9…03a5 sports 80 markets active 8h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,096 (-23%) realized −$1,096 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$990
14 days−$1,177
30 days−$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$985
crypto 4% −$114
other 1% −$45
world 0% −$11
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -13.6% -21.9% 31% 27% -32.0%
≤30d 70 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 26% -31.6%
≤90d 70 -26.5% -33.5% 29% 26% -31.6%
all 80 -10.7% -19.2% 36% 32% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -31.1%
10% -26.9% 26% -37.7%
15% -34.0% 21% -43.7%
20% -40.5% 18% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$48 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,096
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 51
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage114d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $112 −$109 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $796 −$796 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 +$128 +84%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $841 +$70 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $103 +$604 +589%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $288 −$75 -26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 +$148 +145%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $55 +$85 +156%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $94 −$39 -42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $153 −$84 -55%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $41 −$22 -55%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $183 +$59 +32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $203 −$106 -52%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $97 +$86 +88%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 27, 1PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7PM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $20 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $6 8h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 90¢ $4 8h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 83¢ $2 8h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 57¢ $4 11h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 99¢ $5 11h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 84¢ $4 14h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 58¢ $15 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $112 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $33 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $796 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 1¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 29¢ $102 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $280 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $152 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $102 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $911 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $841 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $707 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $103 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $10 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $213 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $250 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $38 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records