Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8e7…18de crypto 200 markets active 3d ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-4%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate48%95W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$28
weather 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -23.9%
≤30d 151 -11.3% -19.7% 40% 24% -15.3%
≤90d 200 -10.5% -19.1% 48% 25% -16.8%
all 200 -10.5% -19.1% 48% 25% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 25% -16.8%
10% -26.8% 15% -24.7%
15% -33.9% 10% -32.0%
20% -40.4% 7% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses95 / 105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage37d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 567 history records