Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8e6…a887 crypto 54 markets active 14h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%38W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$68
politics 9% +$9
sports 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 100% +3.5%
≤30d 54 -3.7% -12.9% 70% 70% -14.3%
≤90d 54 -3.7% -12.9% 70% 70% -14.3%
all 54 -3.7% -12.9% 70% 70% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 70% -14.3%
10% -21.2% 56% -22.5%
15% -28.8% 28% -29.9%
20% -35.8% 7% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses38 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage26d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $40 +$5 +11%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $10 +$19 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 29 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 29 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 29 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 29 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 27 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 27 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $20 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 27 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 27 $31 +$13 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $45 13h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $40 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 17d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) BUY Zverev 34¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records