Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8e2…ec79 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4,197 (+11%) realized +$3,229 · open +$968
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,221per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$940est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,768now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,964
7 days+$7,588
14 days+$2,723
30 days+$2,723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,691
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +44.0% +30.3% 41% 41% +17.2%
≤30d 26 +24.9% +13.0% 35% 35% -1.7%
≤90d 26 +24.9% +13.0% 35% 35% -1.7%
all 26 +24.9% +13.0% 35% 35% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 35% -1.7%
10% +2.2% 31% -11.1%
15% -7.7% 31% -19.7%
20% -16.7% 27% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$1,346) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -35% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,405 vs −$1,113 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$5,768
Realized+$3,229
Unrealized+$968
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$940
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,221
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 51¢ 69¢ $1,800 $2,469 +$669 (+37%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 30¢ $1,000 $1,405 +$405 (+40%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $1,000 $964 −$36 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $1,000 $931 −$69 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $712 +$139 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2,015 −$1,225 -61%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,024 +$3,976 +388%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,013 +$733 +72%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,346 +$2,905 +216%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $928 +$422 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,025 −$112 -11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,024 +$764 +75%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,055 −$2,000 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $967 +$1,360 +141%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $1,023 −$999 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $976 +$5,047 +517%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,956 −$1,984 -67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,013 −$1,974 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $480 −$468 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $610 −$600 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1,290 −$1,254 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $996 +$6,297 +632%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $995 −$968 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,000 −$973 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,992 −$1,947 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,984 −$1,939 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $795 −$783 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $991 −$197 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,827 4m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1,024 6m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 54¢ $850 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1,026 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1,019 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $712 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 10¢ $790 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $2,015 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,013 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1,024 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,251 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1,346 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,351 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $928 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $913 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1,024 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1,025 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $1,787 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $694 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1,361 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 74¢ $2,328 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $967 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1,024 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1,023 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $976 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $971 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1,985 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $993 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $970 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,020 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,768.39 · official $5,768.75 (match) · 47 history records