Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F8 0xf8e2…4114 crypto 1246 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$788 (-4%) realized −$788 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate56%701W / 545L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days−$162
14 days−$461
30 days−$877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$873
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -16.3% -24.3% 22% 22% -19.3%
≤30d 716 -13.0% -21.2% 35% 24% -20.9%
≤90d 1038 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 21% -14.3%
all 1246 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 24% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 24% -13.9%
10% -23.0% 18% -22.2%
15% -30.4% 15% -29.7%
20% -37.3% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$788
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses701 / 545
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1246 / 1246
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1246 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$73 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$64 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$75 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$68 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$76 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$17 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$11 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$13 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$33 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $25 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $27 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records