Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8dd…3972 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day145.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 33% -12.8%
≤30d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 33% -12.8%
≤90d 6 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 33% -12.8%
all 6 -10.5% -19.0% 50% 33% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 33% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.8% 0% -21.2%
15% -33.9% 0% -28.8%
20% -40.4% 0% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
23.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day145.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $56 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $233 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $316 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $308 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $260 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records