Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F8 0xf8dc…b71a crypto 111 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$310 (+5%) realized +$310 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate83%92W / 19L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 45% -6.0%
≤30d 111 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 45% -6.0%
≤90d 111 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 45% -6.0%
all 111 +3.3% -6.5% 83% 45% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 45% -6.0%
10% -15.4% 26% -15.0%
15% -23.6% 17% -23.2%
20% -31.1% 9% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$44 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$310
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses92 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage7d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$67 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$74 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$47 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$42 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$7 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $52 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $51 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 214 history records