Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8dc…2ba2
sports · 61 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$2,361 +63%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,361 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$4
Realized+$2,361
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 60 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$18
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-14.5) Celtics 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Celtics 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Cavaliers 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Devils vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Pistons 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Hornets (-12.5) Knicks 47¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5 Over 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Knicks 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $5 +$3 +46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 +$5 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 30 $4 +$7 +148%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 28 $7 −$6 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 26 $6 +$5 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 25 $6 −$6 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 May 24 $7 +$4 +59%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 24 $7 +$4 +65%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 24 $6 +$5 +74%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 May 24 $6 +$5 +79%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) May 17 $4 +$3 +70%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) May 17 $7 +$4 +49%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 17 $5 +$6 +138%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 17 $6 +$5 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 7.5 May 10 $7 +$3 +35%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $7 +$4 +67%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 10 $6 +$5 +85%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5 May 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 May 05 $5 +$6 +105%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 May 02 $10 +$5 +49%
Magic vs. Pistons May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 29 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 29 $3 +$3 +86%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Apr 29 $5 +$5 +101%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-2.5) Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 20 $4 −$3 -98%
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Apr 20 $9 +$9 +96%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Apr 19 $7 +$6 +85%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Apr 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Sharks vs. Jets: O/U 5.5 Apr 18 $6 +$4 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$2,363
politics 29% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $4 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 40¢ $4 27h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 42¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $5 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 33¢ $4 6d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $3 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 9d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $0 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $1 10d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $1 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 12d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 12d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 13d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 13d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 13d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 64¢ $1 13d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 15d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 16d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 30¢ $5 17d
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 18d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 53¢ $6 19d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 21d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 22d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $4 22d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 22d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.1% 43% 43% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -5.1% -14.1% 48% 48% -9.7%
≤90d 57 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 47% -10.9%
all 60 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 50% +48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 50% +48.0%
10% -19.9% 50% +33.8%
15% -27.6% 48% +20.9%
20% -34.7% 43% +9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.46 · official $4.46 (match) · 179 history records