Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8dc…f31f
weather · 259 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7,168 -73%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,132 · open −$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,857
Realized−$7,132
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses30 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions108
Markets (closed)441 / 259
History coverage2d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1414.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 108 History 441 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,096
7 days−$7,132
14 days−$7,132
30 days−$7,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 45¢ 65¢ $267 $385 +$118 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 39¢ 60¢ $141 $213 +$72 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $236 $153 −$83 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $89 $123 +$35 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $94 $106 +$12 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $137 $89 −$48 (-35%)
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 27¢ $95 $74 −$21 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $59 $68 +$8 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 44¢ 95¢ $26 $57 +$31 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $30 $48 +$18 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 25¢ 31¢ $39 $48 +$9 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $108 $42 −$66 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 12? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $23 $42 +$19 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $31 $37 +$5 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $57 $35 −$22 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $52 $25 −$27 (-52%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 57¢ 94¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? No 43¢ 50¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 22¢ 38¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+68%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $23 $12 −$10 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 26? Jun 12 $0 +$46 +16253%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 17? Jun 12 $0 +$29 +9555%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 +$13 +10479%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 −$13 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 22? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 6? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 12 $30 −$34 -112%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 12 $15 −$19 -124%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 12 $15 −$20 -132%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $16 −$12 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 20? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -460%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 21? Jun 12 $1 −$3 -184%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 21? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 12 $117 −$114 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? Jun 12 $179 −$187 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? Jun 12 $17 −$18 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 5? Jun 12 $21 −$17 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May Jun 12 $88 −$90 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 12 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$12 -114%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 12 $30 −$36 -119%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2543%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 76°F or higher on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 12 $22 −$35 -164%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 9? Jun 12 $14 −$15 -103%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$1,882
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 13¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 30¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 29¢ $6 15m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 29¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 5¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 31¢ $6 19m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $6 21m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 26¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 31¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 31¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 31¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $4 22m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-72.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 441 -69.5% -72.4% 7% 6% -47.1%
≤30d 441 -69.5% -72.4% 7% 6% -47.1%
≤90d 441 -69.5% -72.4% 7% 6% -47.1%
all 441 -69.5% -72.4% 7% 6% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1414.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.4% 6% -47.1%
10% ← realistic here -75.0% 6% -52.1%
15% -77.4% 5% -56.7%
20% -79.7% 5% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,856.60 · official $1,854.94 (match) · 3500 history records