Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F8 0xf8dc…426a other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$4
economics 18% −$5
crypto 16% −$4
other 12% −$2
finance 8% $0
tech 8% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 30 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$911) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage87d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,072 $0 +0%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 22 $968 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 14 $911 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 14 $913 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 13 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 12 $942 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 12 $887 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $108 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 27 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 2h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 2h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,050 2h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 2h
Will Donyell Malen be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 2h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 3h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $715 3h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $252 3h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 3h
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $968 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $65 33d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $16 33d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $65 33d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $15 33d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $16 33d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 SELL No 100¢ $10 33d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $25 34d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 38d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 38d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 38d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 38d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $56 39d
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 98¢ $33 39d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $19 39d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $21 39d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $16 39d
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 98¢ $23 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $686 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $223 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records