Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8db…2a35 sports 1278 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$191 (-6%) realized −$191 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%641W / 635L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$14
14 days−$59
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$122
crypto 14% −$26
other 7% −$34
weather 3% −$54
politics 0% −$7
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -3.3% -12.6% 45% 45% -13.5%
≤30d 451 -4.1% -13.2% 56% 54% -14.5%
≤90d 1275 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 49% -16.3%
all 1276 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 49% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 49% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 45% -24.3%
15% -32.4% 35% -31.6%
20% -39.0% 24% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses641 / 635
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1276 / 1278
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1276 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 52¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $1 +$1 +77%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $7 −$7 -90%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Lehecka Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Aliona Falei Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $1 $0 +49%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $1 +$1 +72%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $3 −$2 -81%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery BUY Mannarino 52¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 52¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 98¢ $1 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Barbora Palicova 53¢ $1 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku SELL Yeon-Woo Ku 97¢ $2 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 58¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 69¢ $1 4h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 74¢ $1 5h
Mertens vs. Bartunkova: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 5h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Luisina Giovannini 97¢ $2 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 74¢ $1 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 52¢ $1 6h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 63¢ $1 6h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 96¢ $3 16h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 57¢ $3 16h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 73¢ $2 17h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 99¢ $2 18h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa SELL Jeline Vandromme 99¢ $2 18h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 67¢ $2 19h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 55¢ $1 20h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 99¢ $1 20h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 99¢ $1 20h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Carole Monnet 99¢ $1 20h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 20h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 55¢ $1 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 53¢ $1 20h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 72¢ $1 20h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 73¢ $1 20h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Santiago De La Fuente 99¢ $2 20h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 73¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.02 · official $2.02 (match) · 2905 history records