Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8cf…1d92 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+3%) realized +$302 · open −$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day61.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$217
sports 31% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 39% -4.9%
≤30d 36 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 39% -4.9%
≤90d 36 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 39% -4.9%
all 36 -14.3% -22.4% 39% 39% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 39% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 33% -14.0%
15% -36.6% 33% -22.3%
20% -42.8% 31% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$49 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$302
Unrealized−$213
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day61.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 39¢ 0¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$93 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$62 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$81 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $208 +$175 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $212 +$239 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $178 −$175 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$70 +68%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $81 +$134 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +82%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $88 +$197 +222%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $36 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $102 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 43¢ $29 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 37¢ $39 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.27 (match) · 78 history records