Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8cc…028a
other · 137 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$378 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$351 · open −$40
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$77
Realized+$351
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses57 / 48
Open positions39
Markets (closed)105 / 137
Avg bet$7
Trades / day318.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 39 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$325
14 days+$351
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-66%)
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+100%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-28%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+252%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ 53¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+389%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $10 −$11 -108%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 12 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +77%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $22 +$14 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 +$16 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 +$5 +30%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -74%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 10 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $55 +$29 +53%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $7 +$11 +174%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $8 +$215 +2816%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $5 +$6 +102%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% +$71
politics 16% +$221
tech 5% +$29
finance 5% −$1
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 55m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +45.2% +31.4% 52% 45% +23.4%
≤30d 105 +43.4% +29.8% 54% 47% +23.5%
≤90d 105 +43.4% +29.8% 54% 47% +23.5%
all 105 +43.4% +29.8% 54% 47% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover318.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.8% 47% +23.5%
10% ← realistic here +17.4% 38% +11.7%
15% +6.0% 29% +0.9%
20% -4.4% 23% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.92 · official $76.93 (match) · 3500 history records