Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:42:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf8cb…ef1c weather 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$207 (-0%) realized −$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%157W / 4L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$23
weather 26% −$198
world 4% +$6
sports 4% +$3
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 92 -0.6% -10.1% 99% 0% -10.7%
all 161 -0.4% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$80 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses157 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage146d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 22 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 16 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $140 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? Jun 08 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $139 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 31? Jun 01 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $136 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 28? May 28 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 27? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 27? May 26 $120 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 24? May 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C or below on May 23? May 23 $138 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on May 21? May 21 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.80 and $1.90 on May 21? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 17? May 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 17? May 17 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 22°C on May 16? May 15 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 15? May 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 14? May 13 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $137 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 12? May 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on May 12? May 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 11? May 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on May 9? May 09 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on May 9? May 08 $134 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C on May 8? May 07 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 6? May 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 6? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 6? May 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 2? May 02 $132 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $142 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $142 41h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $142 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $142 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $122 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $141 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $72 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $123 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $64 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $76 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $141 13d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $140 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $140 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $140 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $140 18d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $139 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $139 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $139 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $139 24d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $139 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $138 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $136 28d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $138 31d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $18 32d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C or below on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $120 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $138 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.10 · official $142.10 (match) · 368 history records