Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf8c8…6268 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+6%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$29
14 days+$19
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$20
sports 8% +$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.6% +3.7% 65% 41% +2.8%
≤30d 27 +6.6% -3.6% 59% 41% -4.7%
≤90d 27 +6.6% -3.6% 59% 41% -4.7%
all 27 +6.6% -3.6% 59% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 41% -4.7%
10% -12.8% 26% -13.8%
15% -21.2% 22% -22.1%
20% -29.0% 15% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 34
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $38 +$3 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $2 +$3 +166%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +194%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$6 +18%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 15 $2 −$1 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 +$3 +9%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 12 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +71%
Will Malawi win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $43 +$9 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $50 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 18¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 SELL 73¢ $4 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $34 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U BUY 19¢ $2 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herz BUY 49¢ $5 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 BUY 27¢ $2 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze BUY 33¢ $2 44h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $32 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- SELL 2¢ $0 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 59¢ $3 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.50 · 64 history records