Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F8 0xf8c4…4ffe crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$330 (+60%) realized +$338 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$22
14 days−$18
30 days+$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$370
crypto 19% +$2
sports 18% −$50
politics 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -56.9% -61.0% 29% 29% -70.5%
≤30d 25 -13.7% -21.9% 52% 48% +74.7%
≤90d 40 -19.9% -27.5% 52% 42% +47.1%
all 40 -19.9% -27.5% 52% 42% +47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 42% +47.1%
10% -34.5% 38% +33.0%
15% -40.8% 25% +20.1%
20% -46.6% 10% +8.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +62% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$6 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.96 per $1 lost it wins $3.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$338
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage82d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 15¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+566%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $12 +$5 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 01 $1 $0 +32%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 01 $10 $0 -5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $20 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $51 +$17 +32%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $279 +$384 +138%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $60 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 25 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 15¢ $1 47m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 24¢ $11 54m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 34h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 69¢ $12 8d
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Daniel Merida Aguilar 100¢ $1 13d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 13d
Perugia: Gianluca Cadenasso vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 75¢ $1 13d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 74¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.87 · official $19.87 (match) · 111 history records