Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:29:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F8 0xf8c3…7d5f crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$4 (-5%) realized +$2 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-37.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-31.4%	-37.9%	67%	0%	-19.6%
≤30d	3	-31.4%	-37.9%	67%	0%	-19.6%
≤90d	3	-31.4%	-37.9%	67%	0%	-19.6%
all	3	-31.4%	-37.9%	67%	0%	-19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-37.9%	0%	-19.6%
10%	-43.9%	0%	-27.3%
15%	-49.3%	0%	-34.3%
20%	-54.2%	0%	-40.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.08 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	Up	50¢	40¢	$32	$26	−$6 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	Jun 15	$35	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Up	50¢	$31	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16?	BUY Up	50¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$1	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15?	BUY Up	98¢	$35	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.92 · official $25.92 (match) · 7 history records