Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8c2…0b70 crypto 100 markets active 2d ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-16%) realized −$83 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate73%72W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$48
crypto 43% −$36
world 2% −$5
other 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.8% -22.1% 72% 22% -26.8%
≤30d 18 -13.8% -22.1% 72% 22% -26.8%
≤90d 99 -16.9% -24.8% 73% 14% -23.2%
all 99 -16.9% -24.8% 73% 14% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 14% -23.2%
10% -32.0% 8% -30.5%
15% -38.6% 8% -37.2%
20% -44.6% 7% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses72 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage87d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Elche CF (-1.5) Apr 22 $17 +$2 +13%
Real Madrid CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $17 $0 +3%
Norwich City FC vs. Derby County FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $15 +$1 +6%
RCD Mallorca vs. Valencia CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $14 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 21? Apr 21 $14 $0 +3%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Apr 21 $14 $0 +2%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $12 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $85 on March 30? Mar 30 $10 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 30 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 30 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 30 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 29 $4 $0 +1%
Predators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 Mar 29 $4 +$1 +22%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Mar 29 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Open: Sebastian Korda vs Martin Landaluce Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - March 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - March 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 24 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $4 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 96¢ $5 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 88¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 89¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 35¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 83¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 95¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $3 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 90¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 212 history records