Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F8 0xf8bf…db0a crypto 441 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-6%) realized −$148 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%194W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$13
14 days−$52
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$38
crypto 18% −$46
other 10% −$124
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +9.2% -1.2% 38% 38% -11.3%
≤30d 438 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 40% -17.1%
≤90d 438 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 40% -17.1%
all 438 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 40% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 40% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 34% -25.0%
15% -32.7% 28% -32.2%
20% -39.3% 22% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses194 / 244
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions3
Markets (closed)438 / 441
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 438 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-42%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$17 +57%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $50 +$15 +30%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $31 −$18 -57%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $61 +$37 +62%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $25 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $40 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $20 +$11 +53%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $41 +$64 +158%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $10 +$21 +205%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $31 −$21 -69%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 16 $21 −$13 -64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$41 +666%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 −$7 -73%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$10 +51%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $10 +$11 +113%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 38m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 43m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 3h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $66 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 76¢ $50 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 18¢ $13 12h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 41¢ $31 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $98 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 63¢ $51 14h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 52¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 99¢ $19 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 21¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 22¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 43¢ $7 14h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 57¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $41 15h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $30 16h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Gentle Mates 28¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 99¢ $31 18h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $20 20h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Grey Trac 25¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $105 21h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 38¢ $41 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.34 · official $17.33 (match) · 1034 history records