Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F8 0xf8bc…2c08 other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$690 (-2%) realized −$279 · open −$411
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%93W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$5,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$89
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$20
crypto 29% −$870
world 24% +$98
economics 6% +$13
finance 4% +$15
tech 4% +$59
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +3.6% -6.3% 100% 7% -7.2%
≤90d 32 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 3% -7.6%
all 98 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 1% -19.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$206 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$5,906
Realized−$279
Unrealized−$411
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses93 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)98 / 103
History coverage226d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 69¢ $4,828 $4,415 −$414 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $797 $796 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $282 $298 +$15 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $295 $294 −$1 (-0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? No 95¢ 86¢ $114 $103 −$11 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $298 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $1,196 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,449 +$27 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,025 +$55 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 11 $295 +$3 +1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 10 $291 +$3 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $318 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $1,499 +$30 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 05 $597 +$5 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $202 +$68 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $322 +$8 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $336 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 31 $291 +$3 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? May 30 $296 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 26 $293 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 14 $244 +$7 +3%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 04 $88 +$2 +3%
Space FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 01 $78 +$2 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Apr 27 $98 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $141 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 23 $138 +$1 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $105 +$2 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 13 $126 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 12 $144 +$4 +2%
MagicBlock FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $182 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 07 $121 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $497 +$3 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $196 +$5 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 31 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 30 $244 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $211 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Mar 23 $80 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $119 +$1 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 13 $104 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 13 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 07 $139 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 14 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? Feb 03 $398 −$398 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $335 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 01 $86 +$1 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 30 $174 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $380 −$146 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $797 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $299 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $149 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $997 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $51 7d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $298 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,270 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $170 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $332 10d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $282 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $298 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,025 15d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $294 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $321 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $315 16d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $329 17d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $291 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $318 20d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $308 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $311 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $56 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $67 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $64 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $64 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $44 21d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $304 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $393 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $295 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $100 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,905.53 · official $5,906.16 (match) · 516 history records