Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F8 0xf8bb…eec9 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$4
world 22% +$2
other 17% −$3
politics 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.3% -7.5% 75% 0% -6.3%
≤30d 12 +3.5% -6.4% 67% 8% -7.7%
≤90d 15 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 13% -7.6%
all 15 +4.1% -5.8% 73% 13% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 13% -7.6%
10% -14.8% 0% -16.4%
15% -23.0% 0% -24.5%
20% -30.6% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage141d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $63 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 87¢ 87¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $6 $0 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 22 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 22 $91 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $30 −$3 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +8%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2 $0 +6%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? May 29 $1 $0 +19%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 08 $1 $0 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs May 08 $1 $0 +14%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 87¢ $43 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $84 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $33 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $6 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $87 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $96 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $11 15d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $70 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $21 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $85 15d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $13 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 23d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $13 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $2 24d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $2 24d
Trump declares election interference national emergency? SELL No 70¢ $1 24d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $1 44d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $1 44d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $1 44d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 89¢ $1 44d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $1 44d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.73 · official $219.73 (match) · 51 history records