Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8bb…4282 crypto 1152 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$262 (+2%) realized −$142 · open +$404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate69%781W / 354L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$761
7 days+$987
14 days+$817
30 days+$1,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$1,926
crypto 36% −$39
finance 7% −$213
culture 6% −$101
tech 5% +$91
sports 3% −$16
economics 2% −$142
politics 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 31% +22.0%
≤30d 110 -18.3% -26.0% 43% 36% +3.8%
≤90d 1135 -0.8% -10.3% 69% 43% -2.0%
all 1135 -0.8% -10.3% 69% 43% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 43% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 27% -11.4%
15% -26.7% 13% -19.9%
20% -33.9% 7% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3,200
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$404
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses781 / 354
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1135 / 1152
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? Up 56¢ 97¢ $631 $1,095 +$464 (+74%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 88¢ 84¢ $840 $800 −$40 (-5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $675 $762 +$87 (+13%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Down 96¢ 95¢ $250 $248 −$3 (-1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $49 $67 +$18 (+36%)
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? No 91¢ 92¢ $62 $64 +$1 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Up 67¢ 99¢ $33 $50 +$16 (+49%)
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Up 18¢ 3¢ $171 $33 −$138 (-81%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+17%)
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 91¢ 93¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 65¢ 76¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+18%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Czechia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-57%)
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +17%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $437 +$1,323 +303%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $145 +$149 +103%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $70 −$50 -70%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $129 −$24 -18%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 17 $115 −$70 -61%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 17 $164 −$114 -70%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 17 $213 −$46 -22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 17 $298 −$51 -17%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 17 $221 −$221 -100%
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +202%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Jun 16 $21 +$3 +14%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 16 $52 −$34 -65%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $271 −$52 -19%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in June? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$19 +64%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$24 +229%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -11%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $430 +$207 +48%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $75 +$5 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $189 +$31 +16%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $96 −$46 -48%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $26 −$16 -61%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $427 +$63 +15%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $19 −$5 -24%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $104 +$32 +30%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $28 +$22 +79%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $25 +$25 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $48 7m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 94¢ $47 11m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $10 12m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 96¢ $7 13m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $48 13m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 96¢ $10 13m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 96¢ $10 14m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 97¢ $48 14m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 95¢ $14 31m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 95¢ $47 31m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 95¢ $48 32m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 95¢ $48 32m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 94¢ $47 36m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 93¢ $48 42m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 90¢ $45 42m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 90¢ $47 42m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 90¢ $45 43m
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 95¢ $19 1h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 92¢ $92 1h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 9¢ $2 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 11¢ $3 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 13¢ $3 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 13¢ $3 4h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 13¢ $3 4h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 41¢ $8 4h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 40¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,199.56 · official $3,199.56 (match) · 3500 history records