Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F8 0xf8bb…f9c0 other 267 markets active 19h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$424 (+0%) realized +$546 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%175W / 71L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$1,305per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$3,247est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$8,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$47
14 days−$1,324
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$104
other 26% +$443
politics 23% +$243
crypto 3% −$68
finance 3% −$12
world 2% +$443
tech 0% +$1
weather 0% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +21.7% +10.1% 90% 48% -6.9%
≤30d 119 +1.3% -8.4% 65% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 246 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 29% -9.2%
all 246 +4.8% -5.2% 71% 29% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 29% -9.2%
10% -14.3% 20% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 17% -25.9%
20% -30.2% 15% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$64 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$8,490
Realized+$546
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses175 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$3,247
Open positions23
Markets (closed)246 / 267
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$1,305
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $2,345 $2,427 +$82 (+4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 93¢ 85¢ $2,057 $1,877 −$180 (-9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,069 $1,078 +$10 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $992 $994 +$2 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $640 $646 +$6 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $318 $320 +$1 (+0%)
Over $500M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 98¢ 99¢ $251 $251 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $142 $160 +$18 (+13%)
Over $30M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 99¢ $136 $139 +$2 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $116 $119 +$3 (+2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $65 $74 +$9 (+14%)
Relay FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 94¢ 58¢ $63 $39 −$24 (-38%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 88¢ 88¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Relay FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? No 96¢ 73¢ $47 $36 −$11 (-24%)
Over $300M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 70¢ 67¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $56 $33 −$23 (-41%)
Over $200M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch? No 94¢ 50¢ $54 $28 −$25 (-47%)
Over $100M committed to the ALIGN public sale? No 97¢ 99¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+259%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 14¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +132%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $89 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Jun 14 $937 +$4 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $76 −$46 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $50 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $120 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$60 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $394 +$5 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $990 −$738 -75%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 11 $549 −$243 -44%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $81 +$3 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$4 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? Jun 08 $44 −$31 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 27? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 79¢ $219 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 86¢ $85 40h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) SELL Yes 44¢ $3 41h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 92¢ $691 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 94¢ $848 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 94¢ $71 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 93¢ $116 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $96 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 94¢ $122 2d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 2d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 2d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $170 2d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $380 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 95¢ $212 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL Yes 96¢ $307 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $319 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 97¢ $197 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $89 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 87¢ $87 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 86¢ $129 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 86¢ $43 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 86¢ $137 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $257 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 73¢ $74 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,490.37 · official $8,490.37 (match) · 3500 history records