Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8ba…e6d0 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 39L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 16% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.9% -12.1% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 33% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 16 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 6% -9.3%
all 49 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage274d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $41 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $24 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $23 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $13 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $12 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 19 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $43 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $12 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $14 39h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 45h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $49 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $49 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records