trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 12 | $52 | −$2 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 11 | $16 | $0 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $68 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $48 | −$1 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 06 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 05 | $31 | +$7 | +23% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $46 | −$1 | -3% |
| Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 | Mar 15 | $6 | +$1 | +13% |
| Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 | Mar 15 | $153 | $0 | -0% |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-12.5) | Mar 15 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? | Apr 07 | $2 | −$1 | -32% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum | Apr 05 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 04 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 02 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 30 | $11 | +$1 | +13% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 28 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? | Mar 23 | $11 | +$1 | +6% |
| Cavaliers vs. Nets | Feb 21 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 33% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 33% | 11% | -8.5% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 33% | 17% | -8.7% |
| all | 24 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 58% | 17% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.0% | 17% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 4% | -17.1% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 0% | -32.5% |