Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8b7…bd65 world 79 markets active 5h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%34W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
politics 18% −$1
other 17% −$14
sports 13% +$2
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.6% -8.0% 62% 12% -9.1%
≤30d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 70 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 3% -9.4%
all 79 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses34 / 45
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage526d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $27 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $49 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $72 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $72 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $36 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $5 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 25h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $15 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $42 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records