Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F8
0xf8b4…aec7
crypto · 292 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$104 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$120 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses219 / 69
Open positions4
Markets (closed)288 / 292
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$162
14 days−$129
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 68¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $34 −$18 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +203%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on June Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +807%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 88% −$81
weather 12% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 15m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 35m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 62¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -25.6% -32.6% 47% 12% -53.6%
≤30d 288 -4.8% -13.8% 76% 17% -18.6%
≤90d 288 -4.8% -13.8% 76% 17% -18.6%
all 288 -4.8% -13.8% 76% 17% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 17% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 7% -26.3%
15% -29.6% 6% -33.5%
20% -36.5% 5% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.94 · official $14.94 (match) · 670 history records