Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8b0…d766 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-8%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$50
14 days+$9
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$237
other 12% +$35
sports 6% −$56
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% +$16
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.9% -35.7% 33% 20% -22.7%
≤30d 47 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 32% -25.4%
≤90d 47 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 32% -25.4%
all 47 -17.8% -25.7% 40% 32% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -25.4%
10% -32.8% 32% -32.6%
15% -39.3% 30% -39.1%
20% -45.2% 23% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage16d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 21 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $130 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$1 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $32 −$29 -93%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$7 +41%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $24 +$16 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$41 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$43 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$19 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$66 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$48 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 06 $52 −$50 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$12 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $52 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $80 −$29 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 06 $53 +$36 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $27 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$9 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $25 4m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 90¢ $128 4m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 91¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $3 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $10 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $9 9d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records