Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8af…968b other 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized +$2 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% $0
world 25% −$12
finance 23% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -13.6%
all 5 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -13.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -21.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -29.4%
20% -33.1% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions29
Markets (closed)5 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 44¢ $21 $15 −$6 (-31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 78¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 65¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 88¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-70%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 65¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.6% and 1.8%? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 36¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 3d
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3 3d
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $1 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $4 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $10 5d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.55 · official $181.55 (match) · 68 history records