Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F8 0xf8af…f1d6 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 29% −$3
crypto 8% +$1
politics 8% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -3.0% -12.2% 39% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage474d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $12 $0 +3%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 29 $14 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 9h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $33 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $5 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $33 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $28 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $45 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $45 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $29 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $12 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 95¢ $2 348d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $2 348d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $9 348d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $9 348d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records